Looking back at my guesses from last year, I note that I introduced them with an astounding lack of confidence, bemoaning the fact that not many categories had any clear frontrunners. As it turns out, I managed to correctly peg 20 of the 23 categories, so I guess those slight favourites in each category wound up winning.
I can only hope that the same thing happens again this year, because (and I'm going to repeat myself now) this is possibly the most up-in-the-air race I've ever had to predict. Best Animated Feature and Best Visual Effects are the two categories I'm most confident about. Almost everything else is primed for a surprise, particularly the acting categories. In most years, at least one or two (or sometimes all four) categories have a performer who has swept all the precursor awards, making the prediction quite simple. Alas, this year, no actor or actress has made a convincing sweep of anything. Best Actor and Best Actress are both two-horse races; Best Supporting Actress is a three-horse race; Best Supporting Actor is, I suppose, the one I'm most sure about, but it still wouldn't be a total shock if Ke Huy Quan didn't take home that prize.
At least the Best Picture race is not quite as close as in recent years. Everything Everywhere All at Once is definitely the frontrunner, though it's not a sure thing. And my woeful record in this category (I've only correctly picked the winner once in the last eight years) makes me wonder whether the fact that I'm predicting it to win means that it won't. We'll find out on Sunday night.
While we wait, feel free to check out all my picks here.
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