Oscar Winner Predictions 2024

My predictions for the Oscar nominations this year turned out to be roughly average to slightly above. I aced Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design, but missed either one or two nominees in each of the other categories. Picking the winners seems decidedly more difficult, however. And with only a few days left before the Oscars ceremony, it's now time to make my predictions about who's going to take home the gold.

I've tried to cram in viewings of as many nominated movies as I can, but I'm still quite behind. Though, to be honest, actually seeing a film is not all that important when it comes to figuring out whether it's going to win. I mean, it helps, of course, but there are other factors that are much more illuminating. Mind you, in this year's case, those other factors are not really giving as clear a picture as I would like. Most of the top categories barely have a frontrunner. Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Director are two-horse races, while Best Picture has at least three films that could reasonably walk away with the award. I probably say this every year, but I genuinely believe this has been the most difficult season to predict in quite a long time. The only thing I'm reasonably sure of is that there will be upsets aplenty.

But predict I must. You can find my guesses here. As you'll see, I've spread the love around, resulting in no film receiving more than three awards, which is by no means unprecedented, but it does make me question my decisions. Well, we'll find out on Oscar night, I guess.

Oscar Nomination Predictions 2024

After a short postponement due to the LA fires, the Oscar nominations are scheduled to be announced in a couple of days, which means it's time for me to embarrass myself with my predictions. As always, it's an interesting exercise. There are the usual frontrunners in each category that seem like locks, but working out which other films are going to fill in the gaps is not always easy.

The past few years have seen a curious pattern whereby a small handful of films appear in a large portion of the categories, meaning there are fewer films getting nominated but each is getting more nominations. This year seems poised to continue that trend. Indeed, I've pegged Conclave, The Brutalist and Wicked for eight to ten nominations each, all of which feels reasonable. Less reasonable are the 14 nods I've assigned to Emilia Pérez, which includes two for Supporting Actress and two for Song. That would put it in a very elite group of only three other films - All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land - so even though I'm almost certain it won't succeed in every category I've predicted it in, I can't decide which ones it'll miss, so I've rather spinelessly left it as is.

If you'd like to see all my guesses for the 2024 Oscar nominations, here they be.