Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Oscar Nomination Predictions 2012

I think that in the three and a half years I've been running this blog, this is the first time since the introductory post that I've posted something that is not a review of a nominee or a verdict. But I just couldn't resist getting my Oscar nomination predictions out into the world. And since I haven't watched another nominee from the current year of review and the Oscar nominations are announced in merely hours, I'll just have to post my predictions on their own. So, without further ado, here they be.

I can't say I'm completely satisfied with them this year. I didn't really spend as long on choosing them as I usually do. But no excuses, I stand by them anyway. I can't wait for the ceremony this year. It feels like there isn't really a front-runner in so many of the categories, so it truly will be a surprising year. Then again, we have the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, plus all the guilds to come before the Oscars, so it may not be so surprising come February.


  1. It looks like you have made some very astute choices to me, even if you didn't spend as much time as you would have liked, Matt. Since time is very short (about an hour before announcements), I'll just post my differences with your picks, and only for the top six categories.

    Picture: I have Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom in place of The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and The Hobbit.

    Director: I have Michael Haneke in place of Tom Hooper.

    Actor: We match 100%

    Actress: We match 100%

    Supporting Actor: I have Christoph Waltz in place of Robert De Niro.

    Supporting Actress: I have Judi Dench in place of Nicole Kidman.

    To show how close we are, both Robert De Niro and Nicole Kidman are my 6th or alternate choices.

    As for personal choices, I have yet to see Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained or Amour. I think I've seen most of the other front runners. I don't know what will end up my #1 pick for 2012, but from a pure enjoyment standpoint, I really liked Silver Linings Playbook. There will be some close races for the Awards, I think.

  2. Well, I don't know if moving the nomination period sooner had any effect, but The Guilds didn't have their best year as prognosticators - especial the DGA, with a paltry 2/5 match. I'm trying to put myself in the mind of the Director's Branch, but really can't figure out their reasons for their results.

    As usual, I end up with around an 80% success rate for the top six categories. No better, no worse.

    As a fan of Silver Linings Playbook, I was happy to see their strong showing. First film since 1981's Reds to have all performance categories represented. Jackie Weaver has to be the biggest surprise. Playbook joins Life of Pi and Lincoln as the only films to have nominations in the big four categories that help determine Best Picture (Picture, Director, Screenplay and Editing). Pi may be hurt by the lack of acting nominations. Still and all, it's Lincoln's to lose.

  3. I also had a pretty average success rate. Slightly lower than normal for the top six categories, but slightly higher overall.

    But yep, that Director category threw me for a loop. That pretty much puts the nail in the coffin for Zero Dark Thirty's and Argo's chances at Best Picture. Which is all the more surprising after last night's Critic's Choice Awards.

    So just like that, Lincoln is the frontrunner. (Although, at this stage, I'm still considering Les Mis an outside chance. That will probably change within the next few weeks...)

    And what a record-setting Best Actress category!

    Emmanuelle Riva - Oldest nominee ever in that category, second oldest acting nominee ever behind Gloria Stuart.

    Quvenzhane Wallis - Youngest nominee ever in that category, third youngest acting nominee ever behind Jackie Cooper and Justin Henry.

    And I'm pretty sure Jennifer Lawrence is now the youngest person to score a second acting nomination. She's certainly on her way to beating Natalie Wood's 3 noms under 25 record, and Kate Winslet's 5 noms under 31.

    Happy to see Jacki Weaver nominated again. Even if she did take Nicole Kidman's spot. An Aussie for an Aussie!

  4. You're right, and Aussie replacing an Aussie. And lets not forget Hugh Jackman and Naomi Watts (although she's not a native Australian, she's lived there over thirty years). I was very impressed with her emotional and physical performance in The Impossible. Not sure what to make of the celebrity endorsements she's been getting, though. A little tacky, maybe. I think the Best Actress race may be the tightest of the performance categories.

    As for director, if the DGA picks Steven Spielberg, its likely all over, but if they go with someone else, we may have a split Picture/Director year. It's an odd year. Lincoln and Spielberg are the front runners, but in truth neither the film nor the director has won much of anything yet. I'll be looking closely at the DGA, PGA and SAG ensemble results.