Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Oscar Nomination Predictions 2013

As expected, I was so busy trying to catch all the current awards season's films (particularly the SAG Awards nominees before my voting deadline on Friday) that I didn't get a chance to watch another film for the project itself. So, once again, I present this rogue post in order to share my Oscar nomination predictions. After working most of the day on them (yes, I'm that obsessed), I've managed to settle on my picks. And not a moment too soon, either. The announcement is set to be made in about seven hours.

I've put them vaguely in order of likelihood, as I see it for each category. If I had my way, though, there would be more rhyming nominations than the two potentials this year. One is very likely - David O. Russell, American Hustle. The other is not - Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks ... And on that note, here are my predictions.


  1. Well Matt, I think the overriding score for both you and I was consistently 4 out of 5 - quite respectable for such a competitive year. It was very hard to ace any category, so your 5/5 for Adapted Screenplay was exceptional. I didn't predict categories beyond the major six, but if I did, I probably would have replaced Captain Phillips with August: Osage County for A. Screenplay and went 4/5 once again. As far as Makeup and Hair, we won't go there, except to say that your choices were mostly for better films.

    The snubs, surprises etc. have been addressed on the web in great detail. I managed to see all the nominated films for all major categories. I still haven't seen Inside Llewyn Davis, but unfortunately I can wait for the DVD now that they didn't do well. I wish I had a clear picture to root for. This was one of those years where I really liked the contenders, but only one felt extra special. That was "Her," and it won't really be a threat. I think the PGA, DGA and BAFTA will help decide which of the Big Three has the best shot for Picture. It's kind of nice to have this kind of horse race at this stage.

  2. Yeah, it seems pretty open at this point. I'm yet to see Her but it's on top of my list of must-sees. From the trailers alone, it seems right up my alley.

    My predictions were slightly above my usual score, I think. The Makeup category is always difficult, but to miss on all three when there are only seven to choose from is a little hard to swallow. I considered Bad Grandpa but resisted on the (now obviously silly) assumption that Academy members wouldn't take it seriously. I should have learnt from Norbit.

    I should have stuck to my guns and left Oprah out, but adding Bradley Cooper in at the last minute made sure I didn't get less than 4 out of 5 for any of the major categories. Switching Meryl for Amy didn't make a difference since they both were nominated. Likewise, replacing Philomena with Dallas Buyers Club was redundant. So overall, my last minute changes pretty much cancelled each other out.

    I'm looking forward to the next few weeks...

  3. It's pretty obvious for me that "American Hustle" will get a bucket of awards.

  4. American Hustle seems to be widely and wildly loved, yet there's a chance that it will be completely shut out this year. It's best shot, I think is for Original Screenplay, but Her has won the majority of critics awards. I think American Hustle will have to take the WGA and BAFTA (where Her isn't competing) to tip the scales in its favor.

    Right now, I see Gravity having strong support from the craft branches and 12 Years a Slave from the old guard who likes to support the 'important, prestige' film. The large actor's branch will have to go for American Hustle for it to have a chance. Even BAFTA results will have to be carefully weighed, since both 12 Years a Slave and Gravity have strong British components, even though only Gravity is officially considered a British production. Right now, I don't have a confident selection.