Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Oscar Nomination Predictions 2014

I'm writing this from sunny (and often partly cloudy) Cabo where I'm enjoying a week-long vacation with my family. The internet here is patchy but not one to ruin a tradition, I've hastily put together my predictions for the Oscar nominations, scheduled to be announced tomorrow morning. I'm not entirely happy with these selections since I didn't spend as much time on them as I normally do, but I'll stand by them nonetheless. Let's see how I go...


  1. One error. Whiplash was bizarrely listed as an Adapted Screenplay contender by the Academy. Apart from that, this is a good list.

    1. Yep, strange decision. If I'd done proper research, I would have noticed that the Academy had categorized it as Adapted at least a week before the nominations were announced. Apparently, Damien Chazelle took a few scenes from his feature-length screenplay and made a short film as a sort of calling card to get the feature produced. I guess the Academy is erroneously suggesting that the feature screenplay is ADAPTED from the short, but even though the short was produced first, the feature was indeed written first.

  2. Hi Matt: Sorry not to have posted my predictions for the top 6 categories, but it shouldn't surprise you that we tied once again. We both aced the Supporting Actor group. I got you by one in Picture and you bested me in Supporting Actress. I never should have bypassed Meryl Streep. I thought she was great in Into the Woods.

    Here's my early odds on the Best Picture race. Using my formula that the most important supplemental nominations (in descending order) are: Directing, Editing, Screenplay and Acting they stack up as follows:
    1. Boyhood - no misses plus most precursor awards
    2. The Imitation Game - no misses plus Harvey Weinstein
    3. The Grand Budapest Hotel: missed acting
    4. Birdman - missed editing
    5. An American Sniper - missed directing
    6. Whiplash - missed directing
    7. The Theory of Everything: - Missed directing and editing
    8. Selma - missed everything (really surprised Foxcatcher with its nominations for Director, Actor, Supp. Actor and Screenplay didn't make it.

    The PGA and DGA results should tip the scales for either Boyhood or The Imitation Game. If another film is selected, it will get more complicated.

    1. Yep, ALWAYS go with Meryl Streep. :-)

      It certainly seems as though Boyhood has the edge at the moment but, as you say, the PGA may shake things up this weekend. Time will tell...

    2. And shake things up, the PGA did by selecting Birdman for their film award. Let's see what SAG does tonight, then wait for the DGA. This may be a race after all. I've seen six of the eight nominees so far, and while I enjoyed them all, I can't honestly say any one is a clear personal favorite this year.

    3. Well, SAG went with Birdman, too, for its cast award. Although, not Best Actor for Keaton. It seems Redmayne is the frontrunner in that race now.

      In any case, The Imitation Game seems to be losing steam perhaps. Now it's a Boyhood/Birdman race.

  3. Boyhood won the ACE award for drama, so the ball seems to be in its court. Budapest beat out Birdman for the Comedy ACE. I think The Imitation Game is out, even if it wins the BAFTA. The preferential ballot will keep it a guessing game, but if Linklater takes the DGA, I can't see going against Boyhood. Fun year. I'm also leaning like you towards Eddie Redmayne.