Despite my unintentional hiatus from this blog, I'll always come back to offer my Oscar predictions.
It's another interesting year in that most of the races seem fairly straightforward, except for the two big ones - Best Director and Best Picture. While the last two years have seen those two awards split between two different films - and indeed, many pundits are predicting either a Linklater/Birdman or Inarritu/Boyhood scenario this year - it's still enough of a rarity that I'm never confident splitting the vote that way. I'm counting on this year seeing a regression to the mean.
Still, that leaves a decision between Linklater/Boyhood and Inarritu/Birdman, and it's no simple choice. But while Boyhood is clearly the critics' favorite, I'm going to go with Birdman, mostly due to its immense industry support. Not only did the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild choose Birdman for their top awards, but almost all of the other guilds gave it something - it nabbed the SAG Ensemble award, plus accolades from the Art Directors, Cinematographers, Costume Designers and Sound Designers. Even the Visual Effects Society gave it a trophy.
For the rest of the categories, I've stuck with the safe choices and one thing has become apparent. Whatever happens, it seems clear that no single film is going to sweep the awards this year. Boyhood, Birdman and Grand Budapest will likely win multiple awards, but then the other five Best Picture nominees could take home exactly one each. It's going to be a nice spread.
So, without further ado, behold my fortune-telling prowess and feast your eyes on my predictions for the Oscar winners of 2014.
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I can say with the utmost confidence that you will not beat me this year. For that matter, I won't beat you. The reason is simple - we have the EXACT same picks. On my honor, I didn't see your post until after I submitted my choices on a webpage where I cover the Awards year.
ReplyDeleteI will say that I made an 11th hour change in the sound mixing category from American Sniper to Whiplash. How we will both do, is as you say, quite dependent on a small number of categories, the most prominent of which are the major ones. After seeing what happened in the 2010 King's Speech vs. Social Network race, I have to go with the guilds, BAFTA's selection of Boyhood notwithstanding. Even the Spirit Award went to Birdman.
Enjoy the show and remember, it's not too early to get Charlie involved :)
Great minds think alike! :-)
ReplyDeleteYep, 2010 was a big factor in my decision, too. And since Birdman has more of an American sensibility, it's not too surprising that BAFTA voters didn't embrace it.
And Charlie is already involved! He appears in an Oscar-nominated movie (likely to be an Oscar-winning movie). He plays one of Julianne Moore's newborn grandchildren in a scene in Still Alice!
First off, way to go, Charlie. Still Alice hasn't played here yet, but I'll be sure to keep an eye out for him. I'll look for the grandchild ad libbing his lines.
ReplyDeleteSo we didn't do too badly with our ballots. It seemed like we went through half of the categories before we missed the first one for Editing. After that there were a few more bumps. 20 out of 24 is one of the better results I've had.
So now we can retire Ordinary People as being the last Best Picture winner not to be nominated in Editing. Disappointed for Linklater and Boyhood, but his film will probably be heading the critics best list for 2014 for years to come.