Sunday, February 28, 2016

Oscar Winner Predictions 2015

Well, I did pretty well with my nomination predictions. Let's see if that translates into the winners. Each year, there seems to be more and more clear frontrunners with fewer and fewer upsets, so there's not as many wild guesses as there used to be. Still, there are a handful of categories this year which could go several different ways, so I won't get too cocky just yet. Without further ado, here are my predictions for who will win the golden statues tonight.

4 comments:

  1. Well Matt, going down your list I didn't think we would differ on anything, but that's no fun. My biggest conundrum is deciding how many technical awards Mad Max would win. It has been so popular with pundits and critics throughout the season. Other than Cinematography, I'm having difficulty betting against it, even for its three closest races: Costume Design, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects. So, I'm not going to, which means we differ on Sound Mixing and Visual Effects. Star Wars seems like a slam dunk, but history is not on its side. The last time Visual Effects went to a film that was not a Best Picture nominee was 45 years ago, Tora, Tora, Tora in 1970.

    My gut tells me that there will be some surprises tonight. Enjoy the Oscars.

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  2. Hey Mike! Are you sure you're not mixing up Film Editing with Visual Effects. I think VFX rarely goes to a Best Picture nominee. Plus, all three original trilogy Star Wars films won VFX. The prequels didn't (Episode III wasn't even nominated) but since The Force Awakens is harking back to the old films, I think it might scrape by. Still, I hear you about Mad Max. It could sweep a whole lot of awards, which might even help George Miller to a win. We'll see...

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  3. I didn't word it correctly. I should have said that whenever a nominee for Visual Effects is also a Best Picture nominee, it has beaten a non-Best Picture nominee every year it has happened since 1970, There have been occasions when a Best Picture nominee for Visual Effects lost, but it lost to another Best Picture nominee. This year a record three Best Picture nominees are also nominated for Best Visual Effects: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant. And who knows: George Miller could be one of the surprises. He won the most critics awards by far, but unfortunately not the DGA, BAFTA or the Globe.

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  4. Well, if we don't factor in the shorts, we didn't do too bad. Spotlight's win was a pleasant surprise. The Revenant was only the third film to win Best Director and Best Actor, but lose Best Picture - the other two being The Informer (1935) and The Pianist (2002). On the other hand, there have been twenty two occasions when the Best Director and Best Actor for the same film completed the trifecta and won Best Picture. That's over seven times as often. It seems that lately these statistical guideposts are being torn down.

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