Friday, January 13, 2017

Oscar Nomination Predictions 2016

Ugh! An entire year without a post. Well, the less said about that, the better. I'm back (briefly) to release my predictions for the Oscar nominations which will be announced in just a few hours. I realise it doesn't really leave any time for discussion. Indeed, I doubt anyone will actually read this before the nominations are announced, so I suppose this is just for posterity. Without further ado, here are my nomination predictions for the 2016 Oscars. Enjoy!

EDIT: Oops. I guess I misread the calendar. Today (Friday) is when the nomination voting closes, not actually when the announcement is made. So I guess there is indeed time to absorb my predictions. Though, I reserve the right to change them before Tuesday morning when the actual nominations will be announced.

2nd EDIT: Well, after seeing a few more contenders, I have indeed made some changes ahead of tomorrow morning's announcement, but only in the Best Picture category. Let's see how I do...


  1. Well Matt, glad to see you back, even if it is just for the Academy Awards. While I miss your Best Picture Nominees analyses, I totally understand the drain on your time it must entail. Truth be told, I would have had a hard time keeping up with you, and I don't have two young children and a career to manage. I also have caught the streaming bug and have spent most of my watching time on various series produced by Amazon, Netflix and other channels.

    I have seen most of this years Oscar contenders, so I'll compare my picks with yours for the top six categories. Not surprising is there are very few projected nominees that we differ.

    Best Picture:We agree on 8, your top seven and Hell or High Water. I'm guessing that there won't be more than 8 nominees, but if there are 10, I'd replace Jackie and Loving with Hidden Figures and my wild card pick, Nocturnal Animals. While I see it as divisive and unpleasant, BAFTA's embrace of it was unexpected.

    Director: Agree with you on your first four choices. I'd like to see Mel Gibson get the nomination, but I'm just not sure, he'll have the support. DGA's selection of Garth Davis was unexpected, and I'm not confident the much smaller AMPAS group will follow along. Many are going with Martin Scorsese, because he's Martin Scorsese, but he has had virtually no recognition with any precursor group. There are three or four other names that can be bandied about for that fifth slot. I'll go with David MacKenzie for Hell or High Water my #3 movie of the year.

    Actor: We agree on all five nominees.

    Actress: We agree on all five nominees. I haven't seen 20th Century Women yet (just opened by me). It must have been difficult not to go with your co-stars, Bening and Gerwig. I wasn't crazy about Meryl Streep's character, although she is impeccable as always.

    Supporting Actor: Agree with your first four nominees. Michael Shannon is one heck of an actor, and he was as good as always as the sheriff, but something tells me one of the two over-the-top supporting performances may get in: Aaron Taylor-Johnson or Ben Foster. Both were fun to watch. Yet despite all this, I'll select Hugh Grant to get his first nomination, even if it is in the wrong category. He was definitely the male lead in Florence Foster Jenkins, even if it wasn't the title character. To complicate an already drawn out analysis, I'm not too sure that Lucas Hedges isn't vulnerable due to his age.

    Supporting Actress: Agree with all five of your selections.

    To summarize, we differ on two pictures if it goes beyond seven, one director and one supporting actor. As far as your entire nomination predictions, I believe you will do quite well, although La La Land, getting a record tying 14 nominations will be a tough task. It was my favorite film of 2017 and I wish it well.

    1. Mike, a very insightful analysis, as always. It's hard to argue with anything you wrote. In fact, I essentially agree with it all. All the alternatives you brought up are all on my alternate list, too, so I won't be surprised if some of those sneak in.

      I've made a minor update to my predictions after seeing more of the films. I've removed Jackie from the Best Picture list, and replaced it with Hidden Figures, so I think that means we now agree on 9 of the 10. But I also think it will probably only be 7 or 8 nominees, maybe 9.

      La La Land picking up 14 nods may be tough, but it's certainly within the realms of possibility. It's clearly universally loved and it has appeal to almost all of the Academy's branches. It garnered 11 nominations from the BAFTA voters, and they don't even have a Best Song category, so it's not hard to imagine it will pick up the same 11 from AMPAS, plus 2 Best Song nominations. Sound Editing might be where it falls short. Whatever happens, it will surely be the most nominated film this year and is currently the clear frontrunner for the top prize.

  2. I'm in awe, Matt. You only missed one in the top six categories - Amy Adams; and my guess is most had her making it as well. With Arrival doing so well, it makes the miss more surprising. Great job.

    You'll have to let us know how you made out with the rest of the categories, but you were right about La La Land - a record tying 14 nominations. I did nothice that your movie, 20th Century Women picked up a nomination for Original Screenplay. I'll be seeing it in the next few days. I'll keep my eye out for the Oscar-expert Bank Manager. See you before the ceremony with the picks.

    1. Thanks Mike! I gave a bit more weight to prior nominees so maybe that's what put me over the edge. Definitely the best showing I've had in the top six. Glad I made that switch last night in the Best Picture category. The rest of the categories were a bit hit and miss. I didn't ace any other category, but lots of 4 out of 5s.

      And yes, La La Land joins All About Eve and Titanic in getting a record 14 nominations. Tying the record for most wins will be a much tougher task, though.

      I hope you enjoy 20th Century Women, but you'll need a VERY keen eye to spot me. Sadly, my close-up was left on the cutting room floor, so you'll only hear my voice and see the back of my head as Ms. Bening berates me for not letting her son open a bank account.