The Globes may also provide some insight into the Best Actress race, which is much more unclear at this stage. Sally Hawkins probably has the most buzz so far for her role in The Shape of Water, but Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) and Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) have both garnered attention, too. And you can never rule out Meryl Streep (The Post) or her British Oscar-bait counterpart, Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul), though they probably have a more uphill battle.
Back to the 1946 Best Picture race. The next nominee is a staple of Christmas television, and even though we're already a week into the new year, I did indeed watch it (not for the first time) a few days after Christmas, so try to hang on to what's left of your festive spirit as you read my thoughts on...
Director:
Frank Capra
Screenplay:
France Goodrich, Albert Hackett, Frank Capra, Jo Swerling
(based on a story by Philip Van Doren Stern)
Starring:
James Stewart, Donna Reed, Lionel Barrymore, Thomas Mitchell, Henry Travers, Beulah Bondi, Frank Faylen, Ward Bond, Gloria Grahame
Academy Awards:
5 nominations
0 wins
Christmas Eve in Bedford Falls and it seems like almost everyone in town is praying for George Bailey (Stewart) to get a lucky break. God answers those prayers by assigning a fledgling guardian angel named Clarence (Travers) to prevent George from taking his own life. In preparation, Clarence is shown a recap of all the important moments in George's life.
As a young boy, George shows his heroism and honesty. As a young man, he vows to get out of Bedford Falls and accomplish big things. But his plans are thwarted when his father unexpectedly passes away, leaving George in charge of the family's building and loan company. Through the following years, George's dreams slip further and further away, always seeming to take a back seat to his obligations.
Has there ever been a more charming movie than It's a Wonderful Life? A charming story, set in a charming town during a charming time of year with charming characters, this is feel-good cinema in its purest form, the epitome of the classic Hollywood film. Even seven decades later, it all holds up. The script is delightful, a mix of witty dialogue and heartwarming drama, wrapped up in a fantastically creative structure. Perhaps unexpectedly for a film that attempts to be so many different things, It's a Wonderful Life actually succeeds in being a well-rounded picture, finding the perfect balance of each of its elements and covering the gamut of human emotion. There's heart, there's drama, there's humour. Plus, there's some high concept fantasy, a plot device that can so often fail, but is executed perfectly here, never becoming so silly that it diminishes the dramatic realism.
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Not sure if you are going to have the time to post your Oscar nomination predictions. Here are mine for the top six categories. The last two slots in the supporting categories seem to be the most vulnerable.
ReplyDeleteBest Picture
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Lady Bird
3. Get Out
4. The Shape of Water
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me By Your Name
7. The Florida Project
8. The Post
9. I, Tonya
10. The Big Sick
Best Director
1. Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
4. Jordan Peele, Get Out
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Actor
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Best Actress
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
3. Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep, The Post
Best Supporting Actor
1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
Best Supporting Actress
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing
Hey Mike,
ReplyDeleteJust posted my predictions. We line up pretty well again. Only two differences - one in Best Picture and one in Supporting Actress.
In Best Picture, I've substituted Mudbound for The Florida Project. I've gotten the feeling that The Florida Project has been losing momentum the last few weeks, so I'm not confident it'll get a BP nod. If I had to guess, I'd say there'll be 8 nominees anyway, so I don't think Mudbound will get one either.
In Supporting Actress, you have Spencer and I went with Blige. I'm not confident about my decision at all. I wasn't all that impressed with Blige's performance and Spencer is clearly an Oscar fave, but in the end, I've gone with SAG's picks. I'm not really sure why. Spencer could very easily take Blige's spot, or Chau's, or maybe even Hunter's. Or Lesley Manville could sneak in and turn the whole thing upside-down.
I agree also that the fifth slot in Supporting Actor is up for grabs. I do hope Stuhlbarg gets it. He's absolutely great in Call Me By Your Name.
And in fact, many of the other minor categories have similar conundrums. There are 3 or 4 fairly obvious choices and then a small bunch of other potential nominees fighting it out for the remaining slots. It's allowed me to be a bit creative in some of my fifth-slot picks. I'm sort of pulling for Downsizing for Production Design and Song nominations, for some reason. Both are far from likely, so we'll see what happens, I guess.