Monday, January 21, 2019
Oscar Nomination Predictions 2018
Just popping back in to deliver my Oscar nomination predictions ahead of Tuesday morning's announcement. It feels like this gets more and more difficult every year. Granted, last year was my best ever, but I probably just got lucky. I'm certainly not expecting to achieve anywhere near that level of success this year. So many races seem wide open. But I've made my choices so I'll stand by them and, if necessary, remove the egg from my face on Tuesday. If you're interested, you can take a look at my predictions here.
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Hi Matt: It seems we are uncannily linked with our predictions. I only do the major 6 categories, but we not only ended up with the same score 26 out of 33, but our misses were exactly the same save for Best Actor: Bealle St. one ahead of Bohemian Rhapsody, Cooper and Farrelly, Blunt, Chalamet and Foy. My missed actor was Hawke and yours was Washington.
ReplyDeleteNow picking winners may be another story. These may change after SAG,
DGA and BAFTA, but early predictions are: Roma, Cuaron, Bale, Close, Ali and King.
Good to see you back on our blog.
Mike
I meant to say your blog, not our blog. I wasn't being presumptuous :) Just one of my typos.
ReplyDeleteHey Mike!
ReplyDeleteYeah, definitely a few more surprises this year than normal, particularly Best Director. And that fifth slot in each of the acting categories was hard to peg. We missed on all counts.
Like last year, the Best Picture race is open to a few contenders at this point. Like you, I suspect Cuaron is the favorite for Director, which makes me lean towards Roma for Best Picture, but that lack of an Editing nom is odd. Could be a Green Book/Cuaron split for Pic/Director. Or maybe even The Favourite/Cuaron.
Bale and Ali seem like the frontrunners in their acting categories, which could be confirmed on Sunday night at the SAG Awards (though, I voted for Cooper and Grant).
I'm leaning towards King winning for Supp. Actress at the moment, but only just. I wouldn't be surprised if Adams or Weisz pulled it off, particularly since King isn't nominated for the SAG Award, so if Adams or Weisz win there, that will boost their chances (I voted for Weisz).
And Actress is tight, I think. I'm having a tough time separating three of the contenders. Maybe Close has a slight edge, but Colman is close behind, and Gaga is close behind that. Again, SAG may help one of them push to the front (I voted for Colman).
Whatever happens, it's going to be another exciting year!
Colman was electric in The Favourite. I had to rewatch her in Broadchurch afterwards. I first noticed her in Hot Fuzz, but it was Tyrannosaur that really impressed me. Looking forward to her playing The Queen in the next season of The Crown.
DeleteIt seams that nearly every BP nominee is missing one or more of the important precursors or AA nominations in a critical category. That's what makes this year more challenging. I think this decade has demonstrated that you can win without having all of them.
I'll never understand what makes the experts in the various Academy branches pick or don't pick certain front-runners. Roma doesn't get an Editing nomination, but gets nominated for both Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. BlackkKlansman I believe has more of the essential nominations than any other BP nominee, but hasn't really won anything. While The Favourite and Roma have tied for the most nominations - 10, one of Roma's 10 was for Foreign language Film, for which The Favourite could not compete. So I give The Favourite the edge there.