Despite letting this blog gather dust (not forever, I promise), I'm back briefly to share my annual predictions for the Oscar nominations, due to be announced in a little over 24 hours. It seemed a tad easier to predict certain categories this year than it has been in recent memory, though I guess that remains to be seen. I've generally played it safe, picking fairly traditional candidates, though that's resulted in a final tally that has four different films each receiving 10 nominations, which seems a bit unlikely. So, in most categories, I suspect that at least one of those traditional selections will be replaced by a less expected film that could be earning its only nomination.
If you'd like to take a look at my picks, you can find them here.
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Hi Matt:Glad you are still active and as usual your Nomination predictions are well thought out. I haven't seen a few of the contenders yet. I'll just post my differences with your picks in the top 6 categories.
ReplyDeleteBest Picture: swap Little Women with Ford vs. Ferrari in case there are only 8 nominees, and replace Richard Jewell with Knives out for the tenth slot.
Best Director: I'll go with Greta Gerwig over Todd Phillips.
Best Actor: I'll substitute Antonio Banderas for Christian Bale. Bale has had a remarkable decade with four nominations. This would make five. Banderas is still looking for his first.
Best Actress: I'll take Awkwafina instead of Erivo, even though I've seen neither film yet.
Best Supporting Actor: Instead of Anthony Hopkins I'll pick Song Kang Ho from Parasite, which I think will do very well tomorrow.
Best Supporting Actress. Where I usually mess up. I'll differ with your choices twice: Zhao Shuzen and Florence Pugh instead of Kathy Bates and Scarlett Johannson. I'm betting that a double nomination is a tough hurdle for S.J.
I'll be back after your winner predictions.
Mike
Hi Mike. As usual, your picks make so much more sense to me than the ones I chose myself!
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, in the end, I don't have Parasite listed in all that many categories. I'm sure it will pick up a couple more nominations, probably at the expense of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and/or Joker.
Right now, though, I'm pegging 1917 to be the front runner. I have a feeling it'll be the nomination leader and possibly go all the way to win Best Picture.
I don't know your final tally, but it looks like you knocked it out of the park. Congratulations, Matt. You were spot on having four films with double digit nominations. Not only is that a first for the academy, but only twice has three films received double digit nominations - 1964 and 1977.
ReplyDeleteAs for me, other than the Best Picture nominations, which were pretty straightforward, I didn't do too well. I thought this would be a breakout year for Asian performers, but my three nominees didn't make it. Your pick of Kathy Bates was a good one. Someone posted that if you saw Richard Jewell, which I haven't, you'd have no trouble picking her.
On to the Awards. I'm not sure if the 'must have' nominations are all that critical anymore to win Best Picture, but I noted that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood did not receive an Editing nomination. Neither did 1917 as well as no acting nods. Yet, those two films feel like front runners to me.
Well, I correctly predicted 91 of 109 nominees (I didn't make any predictions for the short film categories). That's pretty good for me. Normally, I do well with the major categories but fall apart in the technical categories, or vice versa. But I managed to be pretty consistent across the board this time, including getting 100% on 9 different categories, which I'm pretty sure is a record for me.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I was pretty shocked that Once and 1917 missed out on Editing noms. Definitely makes for an interesting race for Best Picture. It's interesting to note, though, that the only film since 1981 that won Best Picture without an Editing nom was Birdman, which was a film designed to look like it was filmed in one shot, just like 1917. So I'm still learning towards it taking the top prize. The guild winners over the next few weeks will hopefully make things clearer.