Well, my Oscar nomination predictions turned out to be my worst showing in about ten years. On the plus side, I correctly picked all 10 Best Picture nominees, which seems like it should be worth something. I also aced Best Costume Design for the third year in a row ... I'm not sure what that says about me.
Now, let's turn our attention to the winners. For the last couple of years, I've felt rather unsure about my picks due to a lack of clear frontrunners in most races. This year, however, most of the categories - particularly the big ones - seem unlikely to result in a surprise when the envelope is opened. Oppenheimer is almost certainly going to be mentioned a lot on Oscar night. I've pegged it for eight awards, which I'm fairly confident about, but it could even pick up one or two more. Three of the four acting races are essentially locks - Cillian Murphy, Robert Downey, Jr. and Da'Vine Joy Randolph. Only Best Actress is somewhat up in the air, with Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone basically alternating wins throughout awards season. But I'm putting my money on Gladstone to win the final battle.
While some of the craft awards will very likely find themselves as part of the Oppenheimer sweep (Cinematography and Film Editing, amongst others), others are a little trickier. I've selected Poor Things for Production Design and Costume Design, in large part because of their BAFTA wins, but the Brits often have a slight bias towards British films, so the Academy might decide to stick to a more American film and award those two categories to Barbie instead. We shall see in a few days.
In the meantime, you can check out all my predictions here.
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