After a short postponement due to the LA fires, the Oscar nominations are scheduled to be announced in a couple of days, which means it's time for me to embarrass myself with my predictions. As always, it's an interesting exercise. There are the usual frontrunners in each category that seem like locks, but working out which other films are going to fill in the gaps is not always easy.
The past few years have seen a curious pattern whereby a small handful of films appear in a large portion of the categories, meaning there are fewer films getting nominated but each is getting more nominations. This year seems poised to continue that trend. Indeed, I've pegged Conclave, The Brutalist and Wicked for eight to ten nominations each, all of which feels reasonable. Less reasonable are the 14 nods I've assigned to Emilia Pérez, which includes two for Supporting Actress and two for Song. That would put it in a very elite group of only three other films - All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land - so even though I'm almost certain it won't succeed in every category I've predicted it in, I can't decide which ones it'll miss, so I've rather spinelessly left it as is.
If you'd like to see all my guesses for the 2024 Oscar nominations, here they be.
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I agree, there have been a few movies recently that rack up 10+ nominations which, in my humble opinion, were really so-so films across the board. This year, so far, that's Wicked AND Emilia Perez. I've watched both and honestly would not mind if they were shut out hard, the way The Irishman and Killers of the Flower Moon recently were. (Those happen to both be Martin S. movies, but that's not the point.)
ReplyDeleteI had to throw shade from my position on the couch, as a non-industry person, but when I see a single title getting 8, 10, 12 nominations, I can't help but feel that better movies were crowded out due to an awareness campaign, rather than the merits of the actual movie.
There's also the political angle, where Academy members might feel guilty if they don't nominate X film, because it's message resonates in this year's cultural climate, etc. etc. No one wants to be seen as "Greenphobic" or whatever.