Oscar Winner Predictions 2020

Despite my lack of confidence in my nomination predictions, it was a fairly average showing for me in the end. Not my worst result, but certainly not my best, either.

As for predicting the winners, this feels like one of the most up-in-the-air races for a long time. Even some top categories, like Film Editing and Original Song, are completely wide open with no obvious frontrunners. Then there's Best Actress, which could go in almost any direction. In fact, at least four of the nominated leading ladies could realistically win on Oscar night. This is honestly shaping up to be a very unpredictable ceremony.

That said, despite all that unpredictability, Best Picture seems like it's Nomadland's to lose. Not since Birdman six years ago have I correctly picked the top prize, so this might be the year I finally make a successful prediction in this category. Mind you, upsets and surprises are Best Picture's specialty, so I probably shouldn't get too cocky.

We'll find out all the answers in a couple of days, but for now, here are my predictions for this year's Oscar winners.

Oscar Nomination Predictions 2020

We're nearing the home stretch of this extended awards season, so it's finally time for the Oscar nominations. Ahead of Monday's announcement, I've cobbled together my predictions of who will hear their name called out. And when I say "cobbled", I mean "cobbled". I haven't had the chance to see many of the contenders so far, so a lot of these predictions feel like stabs in the dark. Not to mention, BAFTA overhauled their voting procedures, which probably means they'll be less of a predictor than they usually are, making the prediction process that much more difficult. I've ended up relying quite heavily on the guilds for my picks, to the point that, in some cases, I've literally just matched the guild's choices precisely. We'll see how that pans out.

Despite my lack of confidence this year, for posterity's sake, here are my predictions for the 93rd Academy Award nominations.

1935 - Captain Blood

I've managed to squeak in one more review before the end of the year, which is somewhat surprising since we're well and truly in the midst of the school holidays here in Australia. It's also usually about the time of year that awards season would be heating up, but with the delay of the Oscars ceremony by a couple of months, there's a strange feeling of limbo. Still, lots of Oscar bait movies have already been released with more to come, so I'll try to cover some of that in the coming weeks.

For now, here's the next Best Picture contender from 1935...

Captain Blood
Director:
Michael Curtiz
Screenplay:
Casey Robinson
(based on the novel by Rafael Sabatini)
Starring:
Errol Flynn, Olivia de Havilland, Lionel Atwill, Basil Rathbone, Ross Alexander, Guy Kibbee, Henry Stephenson
Academy Awards:
2 nominations
0 wins

17th-century physician Peter Blood (Flynn) is arrested for treating an enemy of the crown, bundled up with other rebels, and shipped to the Caribbean colonies to become a slave. In Jamaica, a colonel's niece, Arabella Bishop (de Havilland), purchases Blood and assists in getting him the coveted role of doctor to the governor. Blood is understandably restless, though, and soon organises an escape with his fellow captives, where they plan to sail the seas as a pirate crew.

As a classic swashbuckling adventure, Captain Blood certainly doesn't disappoint. There's a lot of adventure with plenty of swashes being buckled, including an excitingly tense sword fight on a rocky beach and a spectacularly epic pirate ship battle. Granted, you have to wait a while for most of this excitement to begin since the first half of the picture is mostly straight drama, but the anticipation holds our attention well in preparation for the exhilarating second half.

Carrying the film is Aussie star Errol Flynn in his star-making role as the titular character. He's quite the steely-eyed charmer, which ironically ends up causing some disbelief at the thought of him becoming a pirate. Frankly, he comes across as too pleasant to all of a sudden embrace stealing and pillaging as a way of life, let alone become known as the "Terror of the Caribbean." In all fairness, though, there are later moments where Flynn displays appropriate ferocity, and he sells that well, but it's not a smooth transition getting there and ultimately his friendly demeanour returns (or perhaps it never really left). In any case, his on-screen persona obviously struck a chord with audiences as this was the first of many swashbuckling roles for Flynn, including arguably his most famous role in The Adventures of Robin Hood (to be reviewed on this blog at some point).

Also making a star turn was ingenue (at the time) Olivia de Havilland. This wasn't quite de Havilland's film debut - that came earlier in the same year with fellow Best Picture nominee A Midsummer Night's Dream - but it was the beginning of her on-screen pairing with Flynn. The duo (pictured) shared the screen seven more times in as many years, most notably with the aforementioned Robin Hood. Despite being a newcomer to cinema and having to portray such an underwritten stereotypical damsel, de Havilland holds her own in Captain Blood, launching a lengthy and auspicious career, in which she eventually won two Best Actress Oscars.

Of the large supporting cast, all are excellent, with standout performances from Basil Rathbone as the rival French pirate captain and Henry Stephenson as the diplomatic Lord Willoughby. Officially, the film only received two Oscar nominations - for Best Picture and Best Sound Recording - but Academy rules at the time allowed for write-in candidates and, since they also announced runners-up, we're able to see how popular Captain Blood was among voters. Along with its two official nods, the film scored second place for its director Michael Curtiz, as well as third place for its screenplay and score (and a rousing score it is). As for Best Picture, it wound up garnering yet another third place.

1935 - David Copperfield

2020 is almost over and, boy, has it been a doozy. Australia is handling the pandemic considerably well at this moment in time, though I realise that's not the case in a lot of other places around the world, so it really gives new meaning to the phrase "the lucky country". It's all the more poignant considering the fact that up until just a few months prior to the outbreak, I was a resident of California, a region that sadly does not seem to be faring as well. But with vaccines beginning to be rolled out in a few countries, let's hope that 2021 will allow us to return to some semblance of normal.

In the meantime, I've checked out another nominee from the 1935 Best Picture contest...


David Copperfield
Director:
George Cukor
Screenplay:
Hugh Walpole, Howard Estabrook, Lenore J. Coffee
(based on the novel by Charles Dickens)
Starring:
Frank Lawton, Freddie Bartholomew, W.C. Fields, Lionel Barrymore, Madge Evans, Maureen O'Sullivan, Edna May Oliver, Lewis Stone, Elizabeth Allan, Roland Young, Basil Rathbone 
Academy Awards:
3 nominations
0 wins

Born after his father's death, young David Copperfield (Bartholomew) lives with his flighty mother (Allan) until she decides to get remarried to the less-than-friendly Mr. Murdstone (Rathbone). Soon, David's mother passes away, too, so Murdstone sends the newly orphaned boy away to London, but his adventures don't stop there. He travels from place to place, meeting various characters and, as an adult (Lawton), continues his exploits, experiencing love, loss and laughter.

Perhaps shamefully, I've never read Dickens' book so was mostly unfamiliar with the story. Ironically, I still don't feel all that clear on the story even after watching this adaptation. I mean, it's not that it's hard to follow at all, but the plot moves so quickly that it feels like we're just getting highlights. David moves from one period in his life to another, meeting new people and then saying goodbye to them just as quickly. I know, I know, this has become a common critique of mine about novel adaptations, particularly in early Hollywood, where it seems screenwriters were afraid to leave anything out when adapting a long piece of literature, resulting in relationships and scenarios not given the time they need for growth in order to feel genuine. With that in mind, it seems there has been no shortage of film and TV adaptations of varying lengths of Dickens' classic (including a mini-series with a pre-Harry Potter Daniel Radcliffe as the young David). I would think, however, in these days of peak television, this story would make a fine limited series, allowing an entire episode to explore each plot point, instead of the fifteen minutes or so that this version affords. But I digress...

There is no doubt this is melodrama. Not just the performances, but a lot of the craft feels overly theatrical, too. For instance, after walking through a fierce storm, young David's clothes are suddenly and strategically ripped in a very aesthetic fashion. Shortly after that sequence, in place of smelling salts, David is offered two nondescript bottles, each with a large novelty label: Salad Dressing and, somewhat inexplicably, Anchovy Sauce.

It's not all hopeless, though. In fact, many of the short snippets of story are indeed entertaining, a testament to George Cukor's direction. Though, I suppose if I'm going to credit the director for the captivating segments, I must also hold him at least partially accountable for the broad caricatures that are most of the performances. Frank Lawton as the adult David is eternally happy and kind in a stereotypical way, which I suppose helps create a feel-good film, but his character just comes off as uninteresting. On the other end of the interesting spectrum are two actors worth mentioning: Roland Young (pictured on the right, with Lawton and W.C. Fields) is just the right amount of conniving as Uriah Heep, and Lennox Pawle is a breath of fresh comedy as the not-quite-all-there Mr. Dick. Pawle's performance is delightfully affable in its absurdity with an uncanny resemblance to both the appearance and slapstick style of Chris Farley, only slightly less erratic. Ultimately, the picture received only two other nominations beside its Best Picture nod - one for Editing and another in the now-defunct Assistant Director category. But on Oscar night, it finished empty-handed.

1935 - Mutiny on the Bounty

With so much going on in the world right now, this silly little movie blog seems somewhat insignificant (even more insignificant than it did before, if that's possible), but maybe it'll be a welcome distraction for somebody. And with all the big film releases getting delayed again and again, next year's Oscars may be a little light on eligible content if things don't pick up soon, so maybe reading about Oscar history will be all that's left. In any case, with the next Academy Awards ceremony shifted back a couple of months, I'll see if I can catch up a bit by getting a few more of these reviews done before then.

So, here are my thoughts on the eventual Best Picture winner from 1935...

Mutiny on the Bounty
Director:
Frank Lloyd
Screenplay:
Talbot Jennings, Jules Furthman, Carey Wilson

(based on the novel by Charles Nordhoff and James Norman Hall)
Starring:
Charles Laughton, Clark Gable, Franchot Tone, Herbert Mundin, Eddie Quillan, Dudley Digges, Donald Crisp, Movita, Mamo
Academy Awards:
8 nominations
1 win, for Best Picture

The HMS Bounty leaves 18th century England's shores on a two-year mission to Tahiti. Serving as the ship's captain is the tyrannical William Bligh (Laughton), famed for issuing inhumane and often unjust punishments to his crew. His lieutenant, the kind Fletcher Christian (Gable), finds himself at odds with Bligh on several occasions, leading to an eventual ... well, take another look at the film's title.

For its era, Mutiny on the Bounty contains some epic production values. While there are still many obvious studio sets with an ocean image merely projected onto the background, there are just as many shots of actual ships on the actual ocean. Similarly, while much of the action was shot along the Californian coastline, the production also utilised Tahiti itself for some scenes.

Historically speaking, it seems the film hits all the major plot points in a relatively accurate fashion, though from my admittedly brief research, it's unclear whether Captain Bligh was truly as horrible as he is portrayed here. Likewise, the real Fletcher Christian may not have been as charming and compassionate as Clark Gable. And while it's true that Christian married a native Tahitian woman, it seems unlikely the courtship was the love-at-first-sight romance presented in this film. This was the height of British colonialism, after all. Still, being a Hollywood movie, there had to be a love interest, so there was no way the studio would have left that part out, but considering the bulk of the movie consists of a bunch of men confined together at sea for months on end, there was limited opportunity for a leading lady. As such, the relationship between Christian and Maimiti is glossed over quite considerably.

Comprising mostly British characters, it's not surprising the film's cast includes a decent number of British actors, led by Charles Laughton, who nails the pompous, heartless megalomaniac. Clark Gable (pictured with Laughton) and Franchot Tone, on the other hand, don't even attempt British accents, though at least they both speak with a theatrically eloquent American sound. And if you look very closely at the ship's crew, you might catch two unexpected faces. Future star David Niven appears as an uncredited extra, as does James Cagney, who was already well-known at the time, but apparently sweet talked his way into the background one day when he unintentionally stumbled across the set.

Mutiny on the Bounty is one of only three films (along with The Broadway Melody and Grand Hotel) to boast Best Picture as its sole Oscar win. It also holds the record for the most Best Actor nominations for a single film with Laughton, Gable and Tone all competing in the same category due to the fact that the Supporting Actor category didn't exist yet. Indeed, it's entirely possible the supporting awards were introduced (only one year later) as a result of this film's domination of the leading category.