Oscar Winner Predictions 2022

My picks for the Oscar nominations ended up being fairly average. Not my best performance by a long shot, but certainly not my worst either. But now it's time to look into our crystal ball at the winners.

Looking back at my guesses from last year, I note that I introduced them with an astounding lack of confidence, bemoaning the fact that not many categories had any clear frontrunners. As it turns out, I managed to correctly peg 20 of the 23 categories, so I guess those slight favourites in each category wound up winning.

I can only hope that the same thing happens again this year, because (and I'm going to repeat myself now) this is possibly the most up-in-the-air race I've ever had to predict. Best Animated Feature and Best Visual Effects are the two categories I'm most confident about. Almost everything else is primed for a surprise, particularly the acting categories. In most years, at least one or two (or sometimes all four) categories have a performer who has swept all the precursor awards, making the prediction quite simple. Alas, this year, no actor or actress has made a convincing sweep of anything. Best Actor and Best Actress are both two-horse races; Best Supporting Actress is a three-horse race; Best Supporting Actor is, I suppose, the one I'm most sure about, but it still wouldn't be a total shock if Ke Huy Quan didn't take home that prize.

At least the Best Picture race is not quite as close as in recent years. Everything Everywhere All at Once is definitely the frontrunner, though it's not a sure thing. And my woeful record in this category (I've only correctly picked the winner once in the last eight years) makes me wonder whether the fact that I'm predicting it to win means that it won't. We'll find out on Sunday night.

While we wait, feel free to check out all my picks here. 

Oscar Nomination Predictions 2022

It's Oscar season again! The nominations announcement is a little less than 12 hours away, so I'm posting my predictions just under the wire. I only just got back from a two-week family road trip around Western Australia, after which we adopted two adorable kittens, so suffice it to say, spare time has been fleeting these last few weeks. Hence, these are probably the most rushed picks I've ever made in the more than two decades I've been doing this. At least, that's my excuse if it all goes awry.

It seems All Quiet on the Western Front is the film with the most momentum right now. With an incredibly strong showing at the BAFTA nominations last week, along with its appearance in almost all of the Academy's own preliminary shortlists, I have a feeling it will pick up a bunch more nods than I've pegged it for. Not to mention that it's based on the same novel that was adapted into the Best Picture winner at the 3rd Academy Awards way back in 1930. Anyway, look out for it to get lots of recognition is all I'm saying.

Each of the acting categories essentially has four performers with high odds of a nomination (not a guarantee, of course, but just very likely), so it'll be fun to see who gets that fifth spot in each category.

So without further ado, here are my nomination predictions for the 95th Academy Awards.

1991 - The Silence of the Lambs

I seem to be on a roll with the big-screen viewings of the nominees in this current year of review. First, it was Bugsy at the Los Feliz 3 in Los Angeles, and now, I've just taken in the eventual victor at the Randwick Ritz here in Sydney. I won't hold my breath waiting for the other three nominees to pop up on any local cinema's schedule, so this streak will likely end at two, but it was fun while it lasted.

Continuing our look at the Best Picture nominees of 1991, here are my thoughts on...

The Silence of the Lambs
Director:
Jonathan Demme
Screenplay:
Ted Tally

(based on the novel by Thomas Harris)
Starring:
Jodie Foster, Anthony Hopkins, Scott Glenn, Ted Levine, Anthony Heald, Brooke Smith
Academy Awards:
7 nominations
5 wins, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Hopkins) and Best Actress (Foster)

FBI agent in training Clarice Starling (Foster) is entrusted with an interview of notorious psychiatrist turned serial killer Hannibal Lecter (Hopkins) with the hopes that he can aid in the investigation of another fearsome murderer, known as Buffalo Bill (Levine). Lecter is reticent, placing conditions on his cooperation, but when Buffalo Bill kidnaps a senator's daughter next, the FBI ramps up its efforts to acquire Lecter's insight, raising the risk of his escape.

With pulsating tension and some of the greatest misdirects ever committed to celluloid, it's easy to understand how The Silence of the Lambs became a paragon of the thriller genre ... or horror genre, for those of you who prefer to categorise it that way, which is admittedly understandable, considering the gruesome and frightening elements. However you classify it, though, it has rightfully earned its place in film lore. That elevated status is at least in part thanks to Howard Shore's sublime score, which perfectly complements the foreboding action. The main theme, for example, is pure tension.

Jodie Foster delivers a powerhouse portrayal as a woman proving herself in a man's world - aided by the script's cleverly subtle feminist overtones - displaying both Clarice's ambition and her inexperience with equal parts strength and vulnerability. In arguably his most well-known role, Anthony Hopkins offers the ultimate masterclass in how to portray that steely-eyed unsettling evil that has become so cliched nowadays. But his performance contains oodles of nuance, eschewing the monotone vocal delivery of so many other actors' villainous performances that followed. Ted Levine also impresses with a creepy-as-hell turn as the deranged and demented Buffalo Bill. Anthony Heald (pictured) also stands out, nailing the slimy, in-it-for-himself asshole. Both Foster and Hopkins won Oscars, contributing to the film's Big Five haul. For the uninitiated, that means it won Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress and the Screenplay category it was eligible for, in this case Adapted Screenplay. All in all, a rather impressive feat, especially considering it was only the third (and, to date, the last) film to do so.

1991 - Bugsy

For the first time in over two years, I'm back in Los Angeles. In fact, only a few more days and I'll be heading home again to Sydney. But I haven't wasted the opportunity to catch a classic on the big screen. I ventured out to the historic Los Feliz 3 Theatre to see another Best Picture nominee, presented in 35mm. While it was nice to experience the nostalgic graininess of a real film projector (as opposed to the flawless digital projectors currently in use almost everywhere), this particular print had clearly collected 30 years of dust, grit and hair, which was surely not what movie-goers in 1991 experienced. Nonetheless, watching old movies (it feels strange to me to call 1991 old, but I think that's undeniable now) on a big screen is still one of my favourite pastimes so I'm not complaining.

So, let's begin our review of 1991's race for Best Picture by taking a look at...


Bugsy
Director:
Barry Levinson
Screenplay:
James Toback
Starring:
Warren Beatty, Annette Bening, Harvey Keitel, Ben Kingsley, Elliott Gould, Joe Mantegna, Bebe Neuwirth
Academy Awards:
10 nominations
2 wins, for Art Direction & Costume Design

It seems odd, if not a little cruel, that the title of this film is a nickname that the main character detests with a passion. Benjamin Siegel (Beatty) positively despises being referred to as Bugsy and he's not shy to let people know that. In 1941, Siegel moves to Los Angeles to take over a rival crime family's gambling business. Despite being married with two kids, he meets and falls in love with actress Virginia Hill (Bening), while visiting his friend George Raft (Mantegna) on set. While navigating his rocky romance with Virginia, he attempts to realise an extravagant dream of opening a casino in Las Vegas, securing million-dollar investments from long-time crime pal Meyer Lansky (Kingsley) and others. But soon, the casino's budget balloons out of control and Siegel has to scramble to keep things on track.

Clearly an homage to classic film noir, from the script to the direction to the brilliant cinematography, Bugsy feels like it's from a different era. Everything except for the colour photography and the frequent profanities, I guess. The lighting, in particular, uses precisely the same techniques as those classic gangster flicks, creating a near perfect replica of 1940s cinema. Add to all that a captivating story that keeps you hooked and some divine and Oscar-winning sets and costumes, and you have yourself quite an exceptional motion picture.

As Meyer Lansky, Ben Kingsley's accent is pretty atrocious but if you can get past that, it's a powerful performance. The Academy obviously agreed because he nabbed a Supporting Actor nod along with his co-star Harvey Keitel, also brilliant as Mickey Cohen. Headlining the film, Warren Beatty possesses the requisite charm, for sure, however there are moments when he plays Bugsy Siegel as surprisingly naïve. Still, he also received an Oscar nomination for Best Actor. For me, though, despite being absent from the Best Actress shortlist, it's Annette Bening who steals the show. She absolutely nails the 1940s femme fatale in every way - a truly breathtaking performance.

Best Picture of 1935

Well, I've set yet another record for a single year of review on this blog. At almost twice as long as the previous record, this one took almost four years to complete! Granted, this was one of only two Best Picture contests that consisted of 12 nominees, but that still means that, on average, I only watched one film every four months. In any case, they've all been viewed now, so let's get to the business of crowning a winner.

The nominees for Best Picture of 1935 are:

• Alice Adams
• Broadway Melody of 1936
• Captain Blood
• David Copperfield
• The Informer
• Les Misérables
• The Lives of a Bengal Lancer
• A Midsummer Night's Dream
• Mutiny on the Bounty
• Naughty Marietta
• Ruggles of Red Gap
• Top Hat

As mentioned, this is the equal largest crop of Best Picture nominees in Academy history, so as one would expect, there's something for everyone - dramas, musicals, adventures, and almost every combination thereof. With such a variety of genres, separating them is no easy task. But to start, I'll remove a handful for no other reason than I just didn't find them as all-around entertaining as the others, though they all contained at least a few entertaining elements nonetheless. So, let's say goodbye to Naughty Marietta, David Copperfield, Ruggles of Red Gap and Alice Adams.

Broadway Melody of 1936 and Top Hat are both exquisitely entertaining musicals, and A Midsummer Night's Dream is an exquisitely entertaining almost-musical. All three were in the running, but I'm foregoing them in place of heavy dramas, which I guess is precisely what the Academy often does, for better or worse. Also in the running was Captain Blood, a swashbuckling adventure, and fellow adventure flick The Lives of a Bengal Lancer, but for similar reasons to the musicals, they're being dumped too. Lastly, two captivating character-based dramas will also just miss out - Les Misérables and The Informer.

That leaves Mutiny on the Bounty, the nomination leader of this awards year, and the eventual Best Picture winner. I'm going to side with the Academy once again and name it my favourite one of the year, too.

Best Picture of 1935
Academy's choice: Mutiny on the Bounty	Matt's choice: Mutiny on the Bounty

Your choice:

After four years of the mid-1930s, let's try something a little more recent and move forward in time to my adolescence. 1991 is a year I remember well, and while there are a couple of films on this list that I've viewed multiple times, there are surprisingly a couple of other films that I've never seen at all.

And the nominees for Best Picture of 1991 are:

• Beauty and the Beast
• Bugsy
• JFK
• The Prince of Tides
• The Silence of the Lambs

Stay tuned...