Oscar Nomination Predictions 2023

Time for me to put on my Nostradamus hat and see if I can predict who's going to wake up to an Oscar nomination on Tuesday morning. Only 24 hours to go!

This year has been a strange one to predict. There's a small handful of films that have dominated my picks, which always makes me nervous. I've included the same four films in eight different categories and three of those films are together in a further three categories. In total, I've cited Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things 13 times each, followed closely by Barbie with 11 nods. Such domination by such a small selection of movies seems unlikely to come to fruition, but then again, lots of things have been changing over the last few years, so you never know. 

In any case, for better or worse, here are my predictions for the nominations of the 96th Academy Awards.

1991 - Beauty and the Beast

With the actors' and writers' strikes behind us, Oscar season is well and truly heating up. Always an exciting time of year, in large part due to the glut of Oscar-bait movies that are released. Other than the Barbenheimer duo, I've not seen many of the contenders so my watchlist is growing as rapidly as my anticipation for such titles as Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, May December, Napoleon, Past Lives, American Fiction, Poor Things, The Holdovers... So many movies, so little time.

Meanwhile, next up in 1991's shortlist is the first animated film to gain a Best Picture nomination...


Beauty and the Beast
Director:
Gary Trousdale, Kirk Wise
Screenplay:
Linda Woolverton
Starring:
Paige O'Hara, Robby Benson, Richard White, Jerry Orbach, David Ogden Stiers, Angela Lansbury, Bradley Pierce, Rex Everhart, Jesse Corti
Academy Awards:
6 nominations
2 wins, for Best Original Score and Best Original Song

In this classic fairy tale, a heartless prince (Benson) is transformed into a monstrous beast by an enchantress, who explains that the only way to reverse the curse is to fall in love and be loved in return. Ashamed, the Beast isolates himself for many years in his castle, accompanied only by his servants who have themselves been transformed into household objects.

When an old man, Maurice (Everhart), stumbles upon the castle after losing his way in the forest, the Beast imprisons him for trespassing. Maurice's daughter, bookworm Belle (O'Hara), tracks her father to the castle and makes a deal with the Beast: she'll stay with him in the castle if he lets Maurice go. As the two get to know each other, Belle slowly discovers that the Beast is not as gruff as his outwardly appearance would suggest.

It's not often the Academy nominates a family film for its big prize, and indeed, this was the first animated film to achieve the accolade, so that in itself gives Beauty and the Beast a permanent place in Oscars history. And while the traditional hand-drawn animation is certainly outdated compared to today's shiny 3D effects, the film's beauty (no pun intended) is genuinely charming. In fact, the truth is this picture does indeed employ some early computer animation techniques, culminating in the 3D background during the ballroom dance sequence, a groundbreaking feat for the time.

This picture also came at a time when Disney was at its height in terms of musical animation (though, I suppose some would argue they've always dominated that space). The Little Mermaid was a couple of years earlier, with Aladdin, The Lion King and Pocahontas to follow soon after. All five of those films accomplished the double feat of Oscar wins for Best Original Song and Best Original Score. Some have complained that, while the songs may have deserved their respective wins, the only reason Alan Menken won four Score awards (Hans Zimmer scored The Lion King) was because Academy members didn't truly comprehend the distinction between a film's score and its songs. Certainly, the songs in Beauty and the Beast are worthy of praise due to their classic toe-tapping Broadway style and witty lyrics (hence the three nominations for Best Song) but I'd also argue that Menken's incidental music which underscores the scenes between the musical numbers is just as wonderfully emotive, well worthy of its win.

Along with witty song lyrics, the film's dialogue is often witty as well. It's easy to dismiss all these old-fashioned Disney kids movies as just that, exclusively for kids, but there's plenty of laughs for the grown-ups too. In particular, I enjoyed the banter between Lumiere and Cogsworth (pictured), expertly voiced by Jerry Orbach and David Ogden Stiers who sound like they had a lot of fun in the booth.

Granted, it's often cheesy and over the top, both in the cheap laughs and the forced melodrama, so it doesn't hold a candle to the brilliance of a Pixar movie, but it's not quite as childish as I'd imagined. In the end, of course, this is a fairy tale, and the script plays to those strengths with its streamlined and efficient story, capped off by a satisfying, albeit cliched, ending.

1991 - JFK

Oof, I'm yet again introducing a blog post by noting how embarrassingly long it has been since my last one. This time, it's just over a year (not including Oscar predictions). Hopefully, this slow pace won't remain for too much longer.

Let's dive in to another of 1991's Best Picture nominees...

JFK
Director:
Oliver Stone
Screenplay:
Oliver Stone & Zachary Sklar

(based on the books "On the Trail of the Assassins" by Jim Garrison and "Crossfire: The Plot that Killed Kennedy" by Jim Marrs)
Starring:
Kevin Costner, Kevin Bacon, Tommy Lee Jones, Laurie Metcalf, Gary Oldman, Michael Rooker, Jay O. Sanders, Sissy Spacek, Joe Pesci
Academy Awards:
8 nominations
2 wins, for Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing

Shortly after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy in November 1963, New Orleans District Attorney Jim Garrison (Costner) discovers that the alleged assassin, Lee Harvey Oswald (Oldman), had ties to his jurisdiction. Garrison and his team soon focus on anti-communist David Ferrie (Pesci) but when the FBI's own investigation clears Ferrie, Garrison drops the case.

Three years later, the government's official report on the assassination is released, but Garrison remains unconvinced that Oswald was the lone assassin. He speaks to several witnesses and gathers more evidence with an aim to bring businessman Clay Shaw (Jones) to trial for conspiring to kill Kennedy. However, Garrison's obsession with the case causes fractures in his marriage as his wife Liz (Spacek) confronts him about his priorities.

Speaking of obsessions, a school friend and I were absolutely captivated with this film as teenagers. (Not as obsessed as we were with the Back to the Future trilogy, but pretty close.) If memory serves, we saw JFK at least twice during its original theatrical run, and when it was released on home video, we pored over every detail. Watching it again for this blog - at least two decades since my last viewing - was an exercise in nostalgia. I was hooked right from the opening seconds of the film, as soon as I heard the hauntingly familiar sound of the snare drum.

Back in the 90s, I bought into all of it. All the inconsistencies and anomalies surrounding the official story of JFK's assassination were mind-blowing to me and a slam dunk in the case against the lone assassin hypothesis. Now, of course, the conspiracy theory seems like nonsense. It's simply a lot of conjecture and circumstantial evidence. But here's the thing ... it doesn't really matter. The film itself is just so well put together that even if you think the content is all fairy dust and unicorn farts, you'll still be engrossed in the mystery, astounded by each new cockamamie revelation.

It plays a bit like an episode of Law & Order, the investigative team moving from one witness to the next, interviewing each while a visual flashback complements their testimony. Occasionally, however, this leads into perhaps the film's only drawback - it's just a series of information dumps. Laurie Metcalf's deep dive into Oswald is a good example. It's a straight five minutes of pure exposition about Oswald's past. Likewise, Donald Sutherland's cameo, which is about three times longer. In some ways, the whole movie is simply a laundry list of all the supposed anomalies related to the case. It's a lot to absorb, at times.

Nonetheless, the film remains engrossing and entertaining every step of the way, which is no mean feat considering it's over three hours long. It achieves this due to some unique and stylised cinematography, along with the tense and unsettling editing, both of which earned well-deserved Oscars. John Williams' impressive score also contributes to the film's powerful atmosphere. Not only does the aforementioned snare drum riff deftly set the mood, but the main theme is memorably potent.

And what a cast! Led by Kevin Costner (pictured), who peaks with a gut-wrenching final speech, the entire cast, cameos and all, are superb. If I had to pick a few standouts, Jack Lemmon, Sissy Spacek and Joe Pesci each deliver compelling performances. For the trivia buffs, Oliver Stone cast his own young son, Sean, to play Garrison's eldest child. And that's an uncredited Martin Sheen voicing the narration at the beginning of the film.

Oscar Winner Predictions 2022

My picks for the Oscar nominations ended up being fairly average. Not my best performance by a long shot, but certainly not my worst either. But now it's time to look into our crystal ball at the winners.

Looking back at my guesses from last year, I note that I introduced them with an astounding lack of confidence, bemoaning the fact that not many categories had any clear frontrunners. As it turns out, I managed to correctly peg 20 of the 23 categories, so I guess those slight favourites in each category wound up winning.

I can only hope that the same thing happens again this year, because (and I'm going to repeat myself now) this is possibly the most up-in-the-air race I've ever had to predict. Best Animated Feature and Best Visual Effects are the two categories I'm most confident about. Almost everything else is primed for a surprise, particularly the acting categories. In most years, at least one or two (or sometimes all four) categories have a performer who has swept all the precursor awards, making the prediction quite simple. Alas, this year, no actor or actress has made a convincing sweep of anything. Best Actor and Best Actress are both two-horse races; Best Supporting Actress is a three-horse race; Best Supporting Actor is, I suppose, the one I'm most sure about, but it still wouldn't be a total shock if Ke Huy Quan didn't take home that prize.

At least the Best Picture race is not quite as close as in recent years. Everything Everywhere All at Once is definitely the frontrunner, though it's not a sure thing. And my woeful record in this category (I've only correctly picked the winner once in the last eight years) makes me wonder whether the fact that I'm predicting it to win means that it won't. We'll find out on Sunday night.

While we wait, feel free to check out all my picks here. 

Oscar Nomination Predictions 2022

It's Oscar season again! The nominations announcement is a little less than 12 hours away, so I'm posting my predictions just under the wire. I only just got back from a two-week family road trip around Western Australia, after which we adopted two adorable kittens, so suffice it to say, spare time has been fleeting these last few weeks. Hence, these are probably the most rushed picks I've ever made in the more than two decades I've been doing this. At least, that's my excuse if it all goes awry.

It seems All Quiet on the Western Front is the film with the most momentum right now. With an incredibly strong showing at the BAFTA nominations last week, along with its appearance in almost all of the Academy's own preliminary shortlists, I have a feeling it will pick up a bunch more nods than I've pegged it for. Not to mention that it's based on the same novel that was adapted into the Best Picture winner at the 3rd Academy Awards way back in 1930. Anyway, look out for it to get lots of recognition is all I'm saying.

Each of the acting categories essentially has four performers with high odds of a nomination (not a guarantee, of course, but just very likely), so it'll be fun to see who gets that fifth spot in each category.

So without further ado, here are my nomination predictions for the 95th Academy Awards.