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Oscar Winner Predictions 2024

My predictions for the Oscar nominations this year turned out to be roughly average to slightly above. I aced Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design, but missed either one or two nominees in each of the other categories. Picking the winners seems decidedly more difficult, however. And with only a few days left before the Oscars ceremony, it's now time to make my predictions about who's going to take home the gold. I've tried to cram in viewings of as many nominated movies as I can, but I'm still quite behind. Though, to be honest, actually seeing a film is not all that important when it comes to figuring out whether it's going to win. I mean, it helps, of course, but there are other factors that are much more illuminating. Mind you, in this year's case, those other factors are not really giving as clear a picture as I would like. Most of the top categories barely have a frontrunner. Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Director are two-horse rac...

Oscar Nomination Predictions 2024

After a short postponement due to the LA fires, the Oscar nominations are scheduled to be announced in a couple of days, which means it's time for me to embarrass myself with my predictions. As always, it's an interesting exercise. There are the usual frontrunners in each category that seem like locks, but working out which other films are going to fill in the gaps is not always easy. The past few years have seen a curious pattern whereby a small handful of films appear in a large portion of the categories, meaning there are fewer films getting nominated but each is getting more nominations. This year seems poised to continue that trend. Indeed, I've pegged Conclave, The Brutalist and Wicked for eight to ten nominations each, all of which feels reasonable. Less reasonable are the 14 nods I've assigned to Emilia Pérez, which includes two for Supporting Actress and two for Song. That would put it in a very elite group of only three other films - All About Eve, Titanic and...

2010 - True Grit

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Awards season is well and truly under way now with most of the critics groups releasing their top picks, including nominations from the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards. There are a few films that seem to be appearing again and again on these lists - Wicked, Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Nickel Boys, Dune: Part Two - suggesting these are the frontrunners for Oscar's top prize. Personally, I tend to be wary of the "critics mirage" since the critics' preferences don't always align with those who work in the industry. It's not uncommon for a film or actor to sweep the critics' awards yet find themselves left off the shortlist on Oscar nomination day. That said, I expect those films above will remain in the conversation (particularly since there are 10 Best Picture nominee slots to fill) but it would be wise to wait for the nomination announcements from the guilds and other industry organisations, including BAFTA, to see exactly which ones have th...

2010 - Black Swan

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Oscar season is heating up as more and more genuine contenders are released. I'm once again finding myself behind the eight ball with a lot of catching up to do in terms of viewing said contenders, so I won't offer any thoughts about frontrunners just yet, except to say at the top of my watchlist right now are current box office hits Wicked and Gladiator II, as well as the smaller talks-of-the-town Anora and Conclave. Varying degrees of buzz around each of those films. Next up on our tour of the Best Picture nominees of 2010 is... Black Swan Director : Darren Aronofsky Screenplay : Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, John McLaughlin Starring : Natalie Portman, Mila Kunis, Vincent Cassell, Barbara Hershey, Winona Ryder, Benjamin Millepied, Ksenia Solo, Sebastian Stan Academy Awards : 5 nominations 1 win, for Best Actress (Portman) As a member of the New York City Ballet, Nina (Portman) has high expectations of herself, almost as high as her overbearing mother (Hershey) who trea...

2010 - The Fighter

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This past Saturday night was a nostalgic one for me as I attended the concert of a musical hero of mine. It had been more than 20 years since I last saw him live, but even at the age of 75, Billy Joel still knows how to put on a spectacular show. From start to finish, I couldn't stop smiling as I listened to all the hits and album tracks that have been ingrained in me since I was a teenager. Perhaps the most nostalgic part of the night, however, came when he introduced Axl Rose to the stage to sing Live and Let Die. You might not think those two have a lot of common fans, but in 1992, all I ever listened to was Billy Joel and Guns N' Roses, so my brain near exploded during that number. All in all, a fantastic night out. From music back to movies, our next Best Picture nominee from 2010 is... The Fighter Director : David O. Russell Screenplay : Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson, Keith Dorrington Starring : Mark Wahlberg, Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Melissa Leo, Mickey ...

2010 - Winter's Bone

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A highlight of any Oscar fan's trip to Los Angeles will undoubtedly be the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures . I enjoyed such an outing last week when I attended the museum's third anniversary celebrations. After watching a special screening of Chaplin's The Gold Rush , I ventured into the exhibitions to absorb all I could. It was my second time visiting the museum, but as ever, I remained as intoxicated by the movie magic on display. Of particular interest were the spotlights on Casablanca and The Godfather , which housed Sam's piano and Don Corleone's desk, among other treasures. Perhaps the most thrilling section for me, though, was the room dedicated to the Oscars ceremony itself. Various acceptance speeches are played on big screens surrounding a central display cabinet that provides a chronological history of the Academy Awards. Several past winners' Oscars are on display, as well as other artefacts, including presenters' envelopes and Oscar night ...

2010 - Toy Story 3

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After a 14-hour flight yesterday, I'm writing this from the sunny climes of Los Angeles. Long-haul air travel is excruciating, of course, but the silver lining is always the chance to watch as many movies as I can cram in between take-off and landing. This time, I managed four, and it was an eclectic bunch. I caught up with a couple of recent films I missed at the cinema (Kinds of Kindness and Civil War) and threw in a couple of classic comedies to boot (Beetlejuice and Monty Python's The Meaning of Life). A half-day well spent. Before I left Sydney, I watched the next nominee in 2010's Best Picture race... Toy Story 3 Director : Lee Unkrich Screenplay : Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Lee Unkrich Starring : Tom Hanks, Tim Allen, Joan Cusack, Don Rickles, Wallace Shawn, John Ratzenberger, Estelle Harris, Ned Beatty, Michael Keaton, Jodi Benson, John Morris, Laurie Metcalf Academy Awards : 5 nominations 2 wins, for Best Animated Feature and Best Origina...